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Unanswered emails, and the threads that come back

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An unanswered email is an odd sort of work, because there is nothing to look at. It is not in your inbox, since the thing you are waiting for never arrived. It is not on your list, since you did not agree to do anything: you asked, and the doing belongs to somebody else. What exists is a message in your sent folder, filed under the day you wrote it rather than under what it was for, and a fact you are carrying around in your head.

You asked the client on Tuesday whether to go ahead with the March work. It is Friday. Nothing has come back, and the only thing that will bring that to your attention is you happening to think of it.

  • Everything else in your day arrives. This is an absence, and an absence lands nowhere.
  • Replies are quick or they are in a long tail. Half come inside the hour, more than nine in ten within a day, and the rest take as long as they take.
  • The mail you need answered is the slow kind by construction. It asks for something, it leaves your firm, and you took trouble over it.
  • You already hold two dates for every message you send: when you expect an answer, and when you decide something has gone wrong. Neither one is written down.

What an unanswered email really is

Three different things get filed under waiting, and only one of them is this.

There is the message that arrived and put an obligation on you. Somebody asked for the revised quote by Friday, and now it is yours to do. That one has a well understood repair, which is that the ask gets lifted out and dated without anybody retyping it, and email task management is about exactly that.

There is the message you decided not to deal with yet. That is deferral, the timing is yours, and it comes back when you said. Snoozing and setting mail aside covers it, including the part where the arrangement is entirely private and changes nothing for the person waiting on you.

Then there is the message you sent. You did your part. What is outstanding is somebody else’s reply, and it is the only one of the three whose completion is not in your hands. You cannot finish it by working harder on Thursday evening. You can write it down, and you can write the second message, and that is the whole of your influence over it.

That difference is why the third one has no home. An inbox is a record of arrivals, and a task list is a record of what you owe. A debt owed to you is neither, and it survives in the one place with no interface at all.

When silence starts to mean something

The largest measurement of how fast replies actually arrive comes from Yahoo. In Evolution of Conversations in the Age of Email Overload, a 2015 paper for the World Wide Web conference, Farshad Kooti and Kristina Lerman at USC, with Luca Maria Aiello, Mihajlo Grbovic and Amin Mantrach at Yahoo Labs, took 1.3 million pairs of opted-in users who wrote to each other regularly, 187 million messages between them, inside a wider set of 16 billion.

The shape is worth knowing by heart. The most likely reply time is two minutes. Half of replies arrive within 47 minutes. More than nine in ten arrive within a day. And the mean sits at 1157 minutes, a little over nineteen hours, with a standard deviation near a fortnight, which is what a long tail does to an average.

Read that carefully, because it is a distribution of the replies that came. The messages nobody ever answered are not in it, and it makes no claim about how many those are. What it does establish is that a thread still quiet on the second morning has left the part of the curve that resolves itself. It is now somewhere in the tail, where the answer might arrive this afternoon or in three weeks. That is precisely why day two is unreadable, and it is a pair of people who correspond often, which is the friendly case.

People handle that unreadability with two numbers, and somebody wrote them down properly a long time ago. In When Can I Expect an Email Response?, presented at the 2003 European conference on computer supported cooperative work, Joshua Tyler and John Tang interviewed 40 people, 37 of them at two large technology companies, mostly at their own desks with their own mail open, about how they judged that a reply was late.

Two answers came back where they expected one. There is the response expectation, the hour by which you think the reply should have come. Then there is the breakdown perception, their name for the later moment “when the sender believes that something has gone wrong, and will take further action”. The gap between them is wide and quite deliberate. They describe someone who expects an answer within the hour but waits a full day before walking to the person’s office, and someone who expects fifteen minutes and reaches for the phone after one.

At the breakdown point, they write, the sender “will either give up on the request or follow it up”. The follow-ups they observed were a phone call or a visit, a second email carrying “more urgency or adamancy in the subject line”, or a look at the recipient’s calendar for something that would explain the quiet.

Forty people at two American technology firms in 2003, describing their own perceptions rather than timestamps anybody verified, which the authors say plainly themselves. The framework outlived the tools because it is not about the tools. You make both of those judgments on every message you send, whether or not you notice making them, and the second one is a date, specific to that message, arrived at while you still remember what you asked for. There has never been anywhere in a mail client to put it.

Why the mail you need waits longest

Not everything you send is equally likely to come back, and the pattern is unkind. In Characterizing and Predicting Enterprise Email Reply Behavior, a 2017 paper for the ACM SIGIR conference, Liu Yang with Susan Dumais, Paul Bennett and Ahmed Hassan Awadallah measured which messages get answered across 938,035 messages from 279 accounts of a defunct technology company.

Three of their findings describe the mail a small practice actually sends.

Messages containing a request were answered nearly twice as often as messages without one, 14.81% against 7.45%. They were also slower, at a median of 81 minutes against 55. The authors’ reading is the honest one: such mail is “associated with tasks”, so somebody has to find a file or read something or write something before they can answer you at all. The very thing that makes your message worth answering is what pushes it down the pile.

Messages going outside the company were answered 2.26% of the time against 7.76% for internal ones, and took a median of 135 minutes rather than 66. Every message you send a client crosses that line, in both directions.

And length costs you. Reply rates climbed as a message grew to around forty words, peaking near 9.64%, then fell to 2.82% by five hundred words, with reply time rising the whole way. The careful message, the one you wrote at length because the matter deserved it, is the one least likely to come back quickly.

That is one company’s archive, its mail dating from around the turn of the century, and the rates count every message including the bulk nobody would answer, so the levels are not your reply rate and never were. Keep the ratios. They stack: a message that asks a client for something, leaves your firm, and runs longer than a few lines carries all three properties at once.

The Yahoo study adds the kindest finding in this whole subject. As people’s daily mail rose, the share of it they replied to collapsed, from around a quarter at low volume to under 5% for someone receiving a hundred messages a day. Their conclusion was that users “are unable to keep pace with rising incoming email traffic”. Your client’s silence is mostly a fact about their Tuesday. It is rarely a verdict on your message, and it is almost never a decision they would recognise having taken.

The list nobody keeps

So the debt is real, the wait is longest on exactly the mail that matters, and the judgment about when it has gone wrong is one you are already making. The remaining question is where any of it is recorded, and for most people the answer is nowhere.

The sent folder is the only artefact, and it is the wrong shape. It is ordered by when you wrote, it contains everything you wrote including the notes that wanted no answer, and it carries no mark for the ones still open. Worse, what you are hunting for is not in it. You are looking for a message with no reply beneath it, which is a fact about two things, one of which does not exist. Mailboxes are built to find messages, and absences are not messages.

Which leaves two places. Your head, which works until the week it does not, and the week it does not is the week you needed it. Or a list you keep by hand, which is a real repair and the one disciplined people use, at the price of a transcription for every message you send and a sweep to keep it honest.

Tyler and Tang found the effort involved, though they found it pointing the other way. Patty, a solutions manager, reviewed her mail week by week to check she had kept up with what she owed other people: “I also take a look a lot at what’s happened in the last seven days, and did I respond to everything that’s been going on.” That is the diligent version, done by hand, on the half of the problem where the messages are at least sitting in front of her. Nobody described the mirror image of it, because on the outbound side there is nothing to scan.

Which gives a short specification for anything that claims to solve this. It has to be set at the moment you send, while you still know what you asked and roughly when you need it. It has to be conditional on the other person rather than on a clock, since the point is the reply and not the date. And it has to stand down quietly when the answer arrives, because a chase for something already settled is worse than no chase at all.

The explicit version of that has existed for years as an add-on to ordinary mail: you mark a message on the way out, name a date, and it returns to you if nobody has replied by then. It works, and it fires on the messages you remembered to mark, which is a real distinction rather than a quibble. Point compared with Boomerang takes that difference apart properly.

What a returning thread cannot fix

It does not make anybody answer. Bringing the thread back puts you in front of the decision again. The second message is still yours to write, and still theirs to leave.

It cannot tell you why it went quiet. Holiday, workload, a decision they have not made, a no they would rather not put in writing: all four look identical from your side, and silence carries no reason with it.

It cannot decide what the debt is worth. Some threads should be allowed to die. Chasing everything you are owed is its own way of spending a morning badly, and the judgment about which is which stays where it was.

It will sometimes return a thread that was settled elsewhere. The client rang. Somebody mentioned it in a meeting. That costs you a moment, and the other error costs you a client asking why they never heard back, which is why the two are not priced the same.

How Point brings a thread back

Point is a full email client, so both halves of the thread sit in one place: the message you sent and the reply that has not come.

When you have answered somebody and the next move is theirs, you say so in plain words on the thread, in the same breath as sending. Point confirms it. The follow-up becomes a task with a date on it, so it lives on the same list as everything else you owe, with the plan on the task and one link back to the conversation. Come the day, if the thread is still quiet, it returns to the top of your feed and Point nudges you to follow up. What you send is yours to write.

Open loops come back before they go cold rather than at an hour you guessed at weeks earlier, and what you have handed off is tracked without you keeping the list. If the answer arrives first the thread is no longer quiet. Point notices work you have already finished too, marking a task as looking done with its reason in plain sight and waiting for you to agree rather than closing it for you.

Where what you are waiting on is not a reply but an event, you can ask to be told when a particular message arrives or a condition is met. That request sits there as a standing task, marked as watching, and you hear once when it fires, with a record of which watch it was and when. Waiting stops meaning checking.

How far Point goes on its own is a level per kind of action, from suggest-only, through preparing something and holding it for your review, to handling it outright. Every kind starts on review. What it does is written down in order in plain sentences, and undoing something starts from the line that recorded it, though a message already sitting on somebody else’s server is beyond recall. The rest of what Point does with your mail is on the benefits page.

Common questions

How do I find my unanswered emails?

Not by looking in your inbox, since what defines them is that nothing arrived. The only trace is in your sent folder, filed by when you wrote rather than by what you are still owed, and the thing you actually want to search for is a message with no reply beneath it. That is a fact about two messages, one of which does not exist, so no search will hand it to you. Which is why every workable answer marks the debt on the way out rather than reconstructing it weeks later.

Does an unanswered email mean I am being ignored?

Very rarely, and the measurements point elsewhere. Reply rates fall steeply as somebody’s daily volume rises, mail that asks for something is answered more often and later precisely because answering it involves doing work, and anything crossing out of their organisation is slower again. Your message is in a pile rather than under judgment. That is also why a second message so often works: it is not persuasion, it is arriving at the top of the pile on a better day.

How long should I wait before chasing?

The useful number is not a general one, it is the one you already formed when you sent the thing. Research on this found people carrying two distinct times, the hour they expect a reply and the later point at which they decide something has gone wrong, and the second is the one worth capturing, because it accounts for what you asked and who you asked. As a sense of scale, more than nine in ten replies that come at all arrive within a day, so a thread still quiet after two is genuinely quiet rather than merely early.

Is this the same as snoozing the thread?

No, and the difference is what ends the wait. A snooze is a time you named, kept privately on your side, and it returns whatever has happened since. A follow-up on a message nobody answered is conditional on somebody else: it should fire only if the reply still has not come, and stand down without fuss if it has. Reaching for a snooze here is the common way a wait turns into a series of guesses at dates, each made with no better information than the last.

What if they reply before the follow-up is due?

Then nothing should happen at all. A chase sent for something answered on Tuesday costs more than the chase was ever worth, because what it tells a client is that you are not reading their mail carefully. So the thing to judge in any tool that does this is not how reliably it fires. It is how reliably it does not, and whether the answer arriving is enough to call it off without you remembering to.

Should the software send the chase for me?

The return is the part worth handing over. The message itself is usually not, because a thread that went quiet is a live relationship, and the second note wants a sentence only you can write about the March job or the missing statement or what you agreed on the phone. In Point the thread comes back and nudges you, and how far it may go on its own is a level you set per kind of action, starting on review.

The short version

An unanswered email is the one piece of your work that leaves no trace on your side, because it is defined by something that did not happen. The wait is worst on exactly the mail that matters: messages that ask for something get answered more often and more slowly, messages leaving your firm slower still, and the careful long ones slowest of all. Meanwhile the person you are waiting on is replying to a shrinking share of what lands on them as their day fills, which means the silence is usually about their week rather than your message. You already decide, on sending, when quiet would stop being normal. The whole repair is putting that date somewhere other than your own memory, and having the thread come back to you when it arrives still unanswered.

Which debts hurt most depends on the work. An unsigned engagement letter in an accounting practice is a different animal from an unapproved layout in a design studio, and there are eight trades with their versions written out.

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